Grifols (GRFS) August 2024 Valuation Model and Risk Framework

This Grifols (GRFS) valuation model includes comparable company valuation, financial forecasts, segment breakdown, and detailed operating model. Assumptions can easily be adjusted by the user.

The Grifols family and Canadian fund Brookfield BN.TO have agreed to evaluate a possible joint takeover bid for beleaguered Spanish drugmaker Grifols GRFS with the intent to delist it, the companies said in regulatory filings in July.

Grifols said its board held an extraordinary meeting to study a preliminary offer presented by Brookfield and the Grifols founding family, which holds a stake of around 30%, according to the latest data by Spanish securities regulator CNMV.

Brookfield is considering investing more than 5 billion euros ($5.41 billion) in Grifols, with part of that amount to refinance and restructure the company's debt, according to a source close to the conversations.

The Grifols family is not planning to sell its stake, the source said.

Since the Grifols family owns 30% of the equity, this would imply $5.41 billion for 70% of the company, valuing the equity at $7.73 billion, or ~15% higher than yesterday’s close (unconfirmed).

This week, Brookfield is seeking EUR10 billion to refinance Grifols’s debt, so a takeover seems imminent. We think a 20-30% premium would be reasonable for Brookfield to offer vs. unaffected price over the past year, and the current offer is rather low.

Please see our model attached for our view on valuation and company financial forecasts. The business has faced some challenges over the past three years.

Once you have downloaded the model, e-mail us for the associated memo for 2024.

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